SPY Levels & Game Plan

Thursday, December 4, 2025

5:48 AM Eastern - Now that price has established closes above the trendline we’ve been tracking, it should be easier for the bulls to grind higher. Staying above today’s axis level of 683.90 and closing hourly above it is good for the bulls. There is room for them to climb, although I don’t have levels above current price I’m comfortable with including as official tradeable levels until the cluster of levels up at 687.22 and above.

If price gets below and begins to close below the axis (683.90), the bears may have a chance to pull price down more. There may be tradeable opportunities that present themselves in real time depending on price action. Keep an eye on the big picture. Trade well today.

After the closing bell...

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

Price was under 683.90 at the 9:45 AM candle close. Triggering a short at the level a few seconds after that 15-minute window opening gave you a quick Base Hit of at least 4 ES points. No more shorts at the level. The first hit is the best hit. And price didn't really get above the level the right amount of time in the right way to attempt a Recycle trade at the same level later in the day. At 1:42 PM, there was a good bounce at the level after 20+ minutes of being above the level, but not trading it then was the smart thing to do because of all the previous bounces at the level prior to that. The market is basically saying that one of those tests will the the time the level doesn't hold. So, while it did work that time, not trading it was the plan. Otherwise you could have been caught in a long position when price finally did break the level and plummet - like what happened less than 30 minutes later at around 2:10 PM.

Per the rules, a total of 4 ES points for the day.

Tracking log to-date for 2025: