9:01 am Eastern  - Things could get interesting today - and this week. If you haven't already reviewed the Weekly Recap video on the T&T YouTube channel, you might want to check that out. It was posted last night. We talked about some big picture scenarios - that while the weekly and monthly charts are still bullish, there can be some targets on the downside if the market does a reset, that if hit, would still keep the overall bullish picture intact. 

After last Friday's (the 27th of Feb.) close, the futures pulled price down more in the overnight and premarket sessions. And as a side note, price in the premarket this morning reacted very cleanly and bounced from two of the lower levels we had on the board Friday morning. They still were important. You can go back and double check that if you want. The levels from Friday that still worked this morning were 676.63 and 680.34. 

We still have that zone in the SPY that is the first big place the bulls need to defend. It is between 675.00 and 672.00. It's a big, 30-point zone, but it is what it is. The bears have already tried to knock on the door of the top of that zone during the obligatory 8:00 am Eastern shuffle. Will the bulls defend it? If they can, we can get a ripping rally upward if enough traders think that price is on sale where it's at right now. On the flip side, if the bulls can't hold the support levels - and the big zone - below current price, we'll likely see increased volatility as some panic selling ensues. So price really can go either direction from where they're at right now, and do so in bigger-than-usual moves. We need to be careful today. You don't have to trade every level. Look for several good reasons as price approaches the levels, to back up the design of the trade, using larger timeframes before entering positions. And adjust position size accordingly to minimize risk.

Price needs to get back up to 685.99 and start closing above that level for the bulls to have a better chance of pulling out of where they're at now. 685.99 is the axis level for today. Even so, there is still overhead resistance above that axis level. If a rally starts, levels that would otherwise be good resistance can be ignored and busted through as buyers load up. So, while there are levels of potential overhead resistance above the axis level for today, I'm only including 690.07 as an official Daily Level. If things look  right if price gets up to 690.07, it's a place where there could be a decent bull/bear battle.

With price hanging around and below the 680.00 area in the premarket (there is still about 45 minutes until the opening bell as I write this), the bears are trying to hold on to the ball for now. There is a trendline that runs upward from 679.80 at market open today, to about  680.20 by the close of the regular session. Price is under it now, trying to get back on top. You won't see the trendline plotted on the chart below because I don't want to clutter up the board too much - but be aware that the trendline is there and will likely as as a pivot/axis point until either the bulls or the bears establish dominance above or below it, respectively. At 10:00 am Eastern, there is an  ISM Manufacturing PMI data release. It's is very possible that price will already be whippy leading up to 10:00 am, and that news - however it is perceived by the market - has the potential to be a catalyst for bigger moves and swings. So be aware of where you're at when that news drops. Trade well today if you choose to put money at risk.

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

We got a pretty good rip right out of the gate where price bounced from 678.22 and didn't look back for about 40 points. When price got to the next levels on the board, you can see that there were reactions there, but how would have traded the levels for today?

I would like to say that you would have bought ES contracts when the SPY came down quickly after the opening bell and hit 678.22 - because that level was indeed great support. But we like to give the market 15 minutes to settle in before looking for trading opportunities. So where was price the close of the first 15-minute candle? They were slightly above 681.95. So, the plan was to buy at the level if they came back down into it, which they did. And that long trade gave you an easy Base Hit as price rocketed away from that level.

When price got up to the axis level of 685.99, there were a couple attempts, but price didn't close enough to where we'd call them Near Misses. But that kind of behavior is usually telling. It's the markets way of telling you that the area around the level is important, but the more price tests that are and pulls back the better chance the bulls will have to bust through it when they do finally hit the precise level. But even so, if you went short at the level, you were given a Near Miss of the profit objective and price quickly got back to your breakeven. That was your opportunity to bail out of the short trade for a wash. This was a good example of why that rule works a lot of the time to keep you out of trouble. Once price got on top of the axis level, it became support. Being short against that level could have been painful. But you were out of the trade by then, because you followed the rules. They messed around and finally pulled away, but there was no Recycle Trade because when price did come back to test the level from the other side, they came up close multiple times. Those were the trades - without actually giving you the trades. Those were Near Misses. So the level was off the table at that point.

Note in the Tracking Log below that we started fresh by showing just the new month - March. The total data though represents the entire year so far. Thirty seven trade days so far in the year (that means 37 days where levels were hit and trades were taken against them per the rules) and already well into the double digits for our rate of return. We take the bad days with the good ones, and over time, the Base Hits pile up. Will 2026 be another slam dunk triple digit return year? We have plenty of time to go and plenty of trades left. One day at a time... 

Per the rules, a total of 4 ES points for the day.