9:18 am Eastern  - We've got the beginnings of a bounce happening in the premarket. We'll find out if the bulls can hold on to it today. Price is still under the trendline that they gapped under at the open on Friday though. That is still a bearish signal unless the bulls can get above and start closing hourly, multi-hour, and then daily closes above that trendline. It runs from about 643.10 at today's open to about 642.40 at today's close. That is a general area of probable overhead resistance. But the risk is that with the downside extension we got on Thursday and Friday last week, there is a chance the bulls could muster the strength to grind through that area without pulling back very much.

Don't forget that in the uber big picture, price in SPY is still bullish. That's what the monthly chart is saying. Even a test of the monthly 20-period MA - which is slightly above 620 - would not turn the uber big picture bearish. But when we zoom into the weekly chart, we see price under the weekly 50-period MA, which is currently at about 646. Staying under that for more than a couple weekly closes is bearish - at least on the weekly time frame. And of course the daily chart continues to be bearish. Therefore we have potential pulls from both directions right now. At 10:30 am, we have a speech by the Fed chair, señor Powell. When price is on edge, certain words spoken by certain people can have an effect on price action in the SPY and ES. So, just be aware of your surroundings leading up to 10:30 am today.

As far as the levels today, they are relatively spread apart. The aforementioned zone is one area the bulls want to get on top of. If they can, there's an axis level at 645.10. That's a gap left open from last Thursday's close. It could represent at least some interim resistance if the bulls get up there today. Closing multiple candles of significance above 645.10 opens the door for the bulls to possibly drive price higher. There may be other levels of possible resistance above that axis level of 645.10, but nothing I'm comfortable with including on the board today until 658.09. 

The level at 634.08 is Friday's close. If price finds itself down there today, the bulls would likely try to defend that area. Getting below last weeks close of 634.08 would not be in the bulls favor. There are some other levels below the 634.08 area that could act as interim support, but don't forget that if price continues to fall in a bigger way, the big picture could be drawing price down into the monthly 20-period MA, down around 620. That would not likely be a one or two day thing, but when a trap door opens, things can fall pretty fast. So, there you go - a lot of draws on the market on either side of the tape. We'll probably have another interesting week. Trade well today!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

One level was hit today - and that level was 634.08 - and before they got down to it, price found support at around 634.70, which was not on the board from this morning as an official level. There were a couple good bounces at 634.70. In hindsight, that was a possible clue that if price were to get under 634.70, they might not stop for long at 634.08. The market seemed to like 634.70 better than the official level we had on the board from this morning at 634.08.

But treating this as a process, how did the trade at 634.08 work out? It was a Fumble. On the reversal, 5.5 points were given back to the market. And during the reversal position, price came back up into that same 634.08 level and it was ripe for a Recycle Trade at about 1:45 pm. Since the trade was now on the short side (with the reversal after the 5.5 point Fumble), it was entirely feasible that you added to your short position at 1:45 pm, when price hit the level from the underside. We'll assume you didn't though. To keep this tracking log conservative, if you incurred the Fumble and gave the 5.5 points back to the market, you would have stayed short and pulled a Base Hit as price continued lower. So the 4 point Base Hit helped wash most of the Fumble loss - almost back to breakeven. No rules broken during that reversal and resulting Base Hit.

Per the rules, a total of -1.5 ES points for the day.