8:51 am Eastern  - Welcome to Friday, the last day of the week. We woke up to price dripping even lower in the premarket. Because it's Friday, where they close today will be important. We talked about the 50-period moving average on the weekly chart, and how SPY has been flirting with it. From the macro perspective on any market, the longer price stays under its 50-period moving average - on whatever timeframe you're looking at - the more bearish that market has the potential of becoming, at least within the specific time frame that you're looking at. So, on the weekly chart of the SPY, price is once again sitting on top of its 50-period MA. We have not seen a weekly close under that indicator for a long time. The question for today is, will they be able to keep price above the 646.20 to 646.50 area by the time the market closes today? A spike below the 50-peiod MA and a solid weekly close above it is fine for the bull case. It could be just a big-picture test of that important level/zone that gives the bulls what they need to start buying again and push price back up.

With about 45 minutes before the opening bell as I write this, price in SPY is not only flirting with the 50-period MA, it also happens to be where that trendline is - the one we indicated by the zone toward the bottom of the chart yesterday. In the premarket this morning, they have hit that trendline, and that's where they're hanging out currently. Where they open could be different. And also, there are a couple 10:00 am data releases that could act a catalysts to move price around. But for now, they're at the trendline, which for today, runs between 643.26 down to 642.80. Those are the coordinates from opening bell to closing bell, respectively. The bulls need to stay on top of the trendline, as well as the 50-period MA to give them a better chance of rebounding.

Below the trendline zone area, we have an open gap at around 640.25. That could act as interim support. And below that gap are other levels, which may or may not act as support. For today, a lot depends on whether we happen to get some increased momentum and volatility. If the market starts to act "less normal" than usual, levels can be spiked or not hold at all. As always, it helps to look for and identify additional confirmations that add credence to the level's support and/or resistance in real time.

Up at 645.10 is a level that is near where they closed the day yesterday. It could be a tradeable level, but requires additional confirmation before trading against it. It would be a good place for the bulls to start closing above for the door to open to higher prices from where they're at now.

Above that level is 649.22 which was a level that was important yesterday. Price got under it in a way that could create some resistance today if price gets back up there the right way. In the premarket 8:00 am shimmy, price already tested that level and pulled all the way back down to the the trendline area, as previously discussed. So 649.22 may continue to be important as resistance if price gets up there again. And if the bulls can start closing candles of significance above that level, it opens the door to the other levels above it as targets and possible overhead resistance. Again, there are some announcements at 10:00 am today that could move price around. Trade well today!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

As the SPY tanked, we pulled Base Hits all day. The levels worked. They played out like this:

The first trade taken after our trading window opened (after the close of the first 15-minute candle) was a long trade against 640.30 at 9:53 am. Remember, each level has a 5-cent buffer applied toward price, which triggers the E-mini trades. That trade got within the Base Hit threshold as they tried to bounce there, but quickly reverted back to the entry point. That's a Near Miss of the Base Hit profit objective, and the trade was closed out at a wash when price came back down into breakeven.

Price got under that level and a Recycle Trade was triggered at 640.20 on the short side at 10:17 am. That reaction produced the first official Base Hit of the day.

The next Base Hit was the long trade against the operating level of 638.15 at 12:41 pm. They bounced nice there for at least 4 ES points.

The third Base Hit was another counter-trend trade on the long side against the Daily Level of 636.57 at 1:30 pm. 

When price got down to 635.04, there was a Near Miss of the operating level, so the trade was never triggered. No trade there.

Then price came back up in to 636.57 at 2:44 pm. The short trade there handed over the fourth and final Base Hit of the day.

Per the rules, a total of 16 ES points for the day.