9:21 am Eastern  - You may recall a level we had on the board for last Friday, March 6. It was 664.61. It may have seemed a long ways below where price was at the time - Friday morning. But look where price went in the premarket this morning. Right down to that level. They got below it a good amount, and then price climbed about 60 S&P points before coming back to the 664.61 area. They are currently fighting to stay on top of that level with about 30 minutes until the opening bell. Where they open could be different.

I'll go ahead and tell you now that I do not plan to put money at risk today. There could be some good trades at the levels today, but the market can also be a whipsaw, and I don't want to get cut up. The trades were good last week. I'm just sitting today out and plan to wait until the dust settles.

You already know about the zone between 675.00 and 672.00. Price is clearly below that zone now. The bulls failed to defend it - at least to the point where the futures let price get pulled down outside of the regular session. This could mean a gap below at the open today, which could make it harder for the bulls to reclaim that zone and get on top of it again. Under current price, I have identified a few levels that would be typical support - that is unless the bottom drops out even more. Anything can happen today. When you look at the big picture (the monthly and weekly charts), what's happening in the SPY is in line with the slow motion rollover that we've discussed a few times already. As we've been pointing out in the Weekly Recaps - the most current one was posted last night - check it out here... as we've been pointing out on those longer timeframe charts, price can pull back a lot and the overall all market still be bullish. 

On the shorter charts though, there is some over-extension to the bottom, where the chances are increased for a snapback from the right level of support. Where could that support be? Well, we have the levels on the board below 664.61 that I would use if I were trading today. But a risk I see is that if price does find a bottom somewhere today, a bull run could develop where levels above 664.61 could be either spiked a lot or outright ignored. A lot depends on how price action looks on the larger timeframe charts. Price is below all the moving averages we track, except for the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Keep an eye on the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. It's around 656.44 right now. It's not shown as a level on the board today, but it could be important if price gets down there.

But again, I'd be leery about how price might interact with the levels above current price if the bulls can get a rally going. Again, anything can happen today. Be careful if you choose to put money at risk. Give the levels more wiggle room - price could spike levels more than usual. And adjust/reduce position size to minimize risk. As you know, whatever happens, the outcome of all trades at these levels will be logged at the end of the day as if they were traded precisely per the rules of our strategy. I trust these levels and know that whatever happens on any given day is fine. The long-term performance is what matters. But I'm not feeling it today. I may miss some great trades, but I'm ok with that. We'll be back to review the aftermath sometime after 4:00 pm today. Trade well!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

Toward the end of the regular session, the bulls took the ball and did the thing I was a little worried about this morning, which was to blast though a level or two. As it turned out, there was still enough reaction to pull a Base Hit on counter-trend trades even when bullish momentum was high during that time. If you traded the levels today, congratulations for being willing to trust them. You were rewarded with several Base Hits:

Trade 1: short against 664.61 @ 9:46 am. The operating level pulled the trade in. Base Hit #1.

No trade entered against 666.05. Near Miss @ 10:06 am.

Trade 2: short against  668.71 @ 11:04 am. Base Hit #2.

Trade 3: short against 671.37 @ 12:27 pm. Base Hit #3.

Trade 4: long against 668.71 @ 1L27 pm. Jumped out at breakeven after Near Miss of profit objective. Wash on trade.

Trade 5: short against 673.39 @ 3:20 pm. Base Hit #4. (this trade was a good example to be willing to take just a 4-point Base Hit. That's all they gave on this trade. If you didn't take profit then, you could have gotten upside down on the trade.

Trade 6: short against 676.05 @ 3:27 pm. Base Hit #5. This was the last trade of the day, as the topmost level was hit within the 30-minute no-trade window (after 3:30 pm Eastern). It would have been a no-trigger, Near Miss anyway. But 20 points on day when uncertainty in the market was high... is pretty good. March has been a good month so far.

Per the rules, a total of 20 ES points for the day.