SPY Levels & Game Plan
Tuesday, April 7, 2026

9:04 am Eastern - Price in the premarket has pulled back a little, but they're still on top of the trendline. For today, that trendline runs from about 652.50 at market open down to about 651.00 by the closing bell. The dotted light blue lines represent the area of the trendline for today, but the levels themselves are just the top and bottom of the trendline. So if price gets down into that area today, it would be best to understand where in the entire range of that slope where price is in relation to the actual trendline. It might help to plot your own trendline using the above coordinates.
We've referred to the DJT and the IWM a few times over the past month or more. Both those markets have done a good job defending and staying on top of their respective lines in the sand. Price is starting to look more bullish, at least in the DJT. They have pulled away from 17,700 with some bullish strength and could be targeting 20,000 again. Remember, the DJT is a good leading indicator to the SPY. Sometimes, the DJT is the only market doing one thing, while the other markets are doing another. And then eventually, the rest of the markets catch up to whatever the DJT is doing. The IWM is still on top of 242.50, but has been above that line in the sand for less time. They're less bullish than the DJT. I'm keeping an eye on IWM to see if it will rebound and start matching the momentum of the DJT, and if so, we can look for reasons why the SPY could follow suit. The inverse could happen too, of course. They could find overhead resistance and pull back and start aligning with SPY. But for now, those other market leading indicators seem to be pulling the SPY along with them - in the upward direction. Or at least providing clues about more bullish behavior.
With all that being said, there are still geopolitical events popping up just about every day that have pulls on the market. Today, at 8:00 pm Eastern is a supposed ceasefire deadline for Iran. POTUS has a speech scheduled. We could wake up tomorrow with a different scenario on our hands. For today though, we have price in SPY above a trendline that has thus far kept a cap on price. If the bulls can stay above, that will probably mean more bullish behavior in the SPY for the near-to-mid-term. If price gets below that trendline and starts closing daily candles below it, we need to step back and consider what the other leading indicators are doing - as well as what the political world stage looks like.
The level at 658.95 is yesterday's close and a place the bulls need to get above to be in a better position to climb some more. That level is our bull axis level. The trendline is the bear axis. If price gets below the low of that trendline zone area, call it 651.00 and below, and starts closing hourly candles under that area, the bears could be in a better position to try to pull price down more from there. That whole trendline area is the bear axis for today. Again, keep an eye on the other indices and pay attention to what price is doing on longer timeframes as price and time converge at the Daily Levels. Look for additional confirmations that lend credence to a level's likely support and/or resistance by looking for multiple confirmations on the other timeframes. Trade well today!
After the closing bell...

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:
The trendline was the ticket today. While the DJT and the IWM stayed strong, the SPY tested its trendline a couple times and never got below it. That gave the bulls to grind higher. The real move was after the closing bell as the market got a lift - presumably from the news that dropped around 6:00 pm Eastern. Nobody really likes bombs. Let's be real. So where were the trades today?
First Base Hit was a long against 654.73 at 9:45 am. Right after the window of opportunity opened. Price bounced and went right up into and hit 655.86. That triggered a short trade, and price fell, as designed. Base Hit number two.
After that, the interaction of price with the trendline levels at 652.50 and 651.00 did not produce Base Hits. There was a Near Miss of the profit objective at 652.50, so that trade was closed out for a wash. That occurred at 10:07 am. As you can see, price found good support there and they did bounce. But we trade by a process here so we don't count trades that go against our rules. So, no official Base Hit against 652.50 on the long side. The Recycle trade against 654.73 was not triggered because of a Near Miss. No trade there. The level was good for a short trade, but you know, rules. No additional points at this stage in the game.
Price got above 655.86, but no Recycle Trade on the long side, because when price came back into the level from above, but enough time had elapsed to attempt an long trade there. That's another rule. Because, you never know. The rules keep us out of trouble most of the time.
When price got up to the bull axis of 658.95, there was no short trade triggered against that level because it was hit within 30 minutes of the close of the regular session. Net-net, two official Base Hit trades for the day. And by the way, once price got above the bull axis, they were in a good place to react to the post-market news. Price has a nice lift so far as of 9:00 pm Eastern. Where they open tomorrow morning could be different. It should be an interesting rest of the week.
One more note: there was no Weekly Recap video created or posted last Sunday. There will be a catch up weekly recap video posted this coming Saturday, April 11 (hopefully). Talk to you then.
Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.
Tracking log to-date for 2026:

