9:16 am Eastern  - We're getting a lift in the premarket on this last trading day of March. It will be interesting to see where they close the SPY today. They never got price down to the monthly 20-period MA, which is at about 620.65-ish for today. Price has pulled up a decent amount above that level so far in the premarket. And by the way, did you see where the futures found support and started rallying? It was at about 8:30 pm Eastern last night, when the futures went down to the equivalent level of SPY 628.74. That was a level we had on the board yesterday that price never got down to. The found some support slightly above that level during the regular session. But that price action didn't make the level less important. After the closing bell a few hours, the ES futures got to that level and bounced nicely from there. I was looking at the charts at the time, and took a long trade in the ES at about 8:30 pm, when that level was hit. It worked out nicely. The point is, the levels tend to work even after the closing bell - for each particular trading day, at least.

For today, we have the trendline coming into view. It runs from about 642.40 at the open to about 642.00 by the closing bell. It's down-sloping. The dotted light blue levels on the chart indicate where that trendline is. The bulls may run into resistance trying to get through that area. And there are other, more typical levels flanking that trendline too. So either that area provides overall resistance for the bulls, or they're able to fight through it. If the latter happens, that could help the bull case, and they'll probably start targeting levels higher up.

But if the bulls get rejected at the trendline area, a pull back would still be in keeping with the overall bearish sentiment on most of the intermediate time frames. Don't forget, price is under the weekly 50-period MA right now. We've just had one weekly close under it, so we'll know more by the close of this Friday. A lot can happen this week. The monthly chart is bullish - they haven't even gotten low enough to test the monthly 20-period MA. And the intermediate timeframes are bearish until you get to the smaller ones, like the 15-minute and the 10-minute timeframes. Today, there will likely be some battles on those smaller timeframes as the bulls try to get on top of and stay on top of important moving averages.

The trendline is important, but I will be using it as a gauge - not to trade against as precise levels. I'd rather use the more typical levels to trade against - the dark blue lines on the chart. So far, the level at 640.13 is giving the bulls some trouble. It is acting as resistance right now. That may continue to be the case after the opening bell, but if price gets on top and stays on top the right way, that level of 640.13 can become support. This understanding of how the Daily Levels work should help you see the wisdom in pulling relatively small Base Hits at the levels. We don't necessarily know which ones might provide homeruns - as in way more than just 4 ES points. And levels that provide good resistance, turn into levels of support when price gets on top of them. And this can happen on the other side too. Support levels become overhead resistance after price gets below them the right way.

The level at 645.10 is an open gap at an important place. If the bulls can get closes above that level, they could climb higher - maybe not today, but eventually. That level is today's axis point. Below it (and below the trendline) is better for the bears. Above both of those areas is better for the bulls.

There are 9:45 am and 10:00 am data releases that could affect price. So be aware of those. Otherwise, trade well today!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

Well, it was always a possibility that it would happen - that the bulls would build up enough strength to power through and get back on top of the trendline. We had the schematic from this morning.

Before the 9:45 am window opened, price had already pulled back from 640.13, but since we're using a process here, a short trade was entered at 9:46 am at that level and then the position was added to with the same number of contracts at the next level up, 641.60 at 9:50 am. That averaged-in position resulted in a Fumble of 5 points, and a Base Hit on the reversal. The reason the trade wasn't reversed when it hit the 20-point out-of-the-money threshold was that the level at 643.05 was within a certain distance away. The expectation was that that level would add resistance to the short position. The level wasn't hit so no more contracts were added to the position, but price was pulled back down from there. The Fumble happened at 5 points out-of-the-money and the reversal washed some of that loss away.

The Recycle trade on the long side of 640.13 resulted in a wash because of a Near Miss of the Base Hit profit objective. Price fell some more, and look where they found support - right under the opening range low. The level at 638.15 wasn't a level on the board from this morning, but with price action in real time, the market gave you an opportunity for a long trade there against the opening range (first 30-minutes of regular session) low.

There was no short against 643.05 again when price got back up there at 12:49 pm, because of the Near Miss at 10:01 am. That's why we have the "first hit is the best hit" rule.

But when price got above the trendline, the bulls really took over and blasted through the axis level of 645.10. I like to use axis levels as gauges, but as a process, that would have been a short trade there since it was an official level from this morning. Clearly, it didn't hold, and quickly hit the max loss limit. The level was important as price found support a few minutes later and stayed on top of it. As we said in the Game Plan this morning, if price were to get above the trendline and the axis level, the bulls would be in charge. And that is what happened. Today was a good today to be able to look at the larger timeframe charts, understand the big picture, and trade a little more discretionary. Strictly following the rules didn't work today.

Per the rules, a total of -22 ES points for the day.