9:12 am Eastern  - It's FOMC day. While there are a lot of levels on the board for today, our practice is to not get into any new trades after 1:00 pm on these FOMC days. So even if (or when) price starts whipsawing around leading up to and after the FOMC announcement, we won't have money at risk during that time. 

When I started working these levels early this morning, price was still up in the zone area from yesterday's levels, but they've been mostly falling for the past couple hours. You'll notice that at the premarket open at 4:00 am Eastern price gapped up to the exact same zone area where we nailed the top yesterday. That area is still below the top of the big-picture zone, which is 675.00. So, now that price is dripping lower, how are we to interpret it?

Well, first of all, price is below the big-picture zone and the trendline that we've been talking about for a couple weeks. Price action in the premarket has a bearish feel about it, but it could be a fake out. Strange things can happen to price on FOMC days. Price is below yesterday's close too, which is the axis level for today. That's at 670.79. The bulls would need to get back above that 670.79 level, and if they get back up there, that level could coincide with the trendline. That could represent some overhead resistance. So they'd have their work cut out to climb higher. Also, anywhere inside of the big-picture 672 to 675 zone will likely present challenges for the bulls to get through. Anything is possible, as you know, but we're just calling it like we see it for now. Price would need to get above 676.50 and get hourly, multi-hourly and then daily closes above that level for the door to open for the bulls to have a chance of pulling out of this thing. Meanwhile,  the short timeframes keep giving up levels of support, making things more bearish for the time being.

The levels are typical and designed for Base Hit trades. Price has the potential to go either direction today - and certainly do so after 2:00 pm Eastern. The level at 664.63 is not a tradeable level by default. It can work as support, but it would help if there are more confirmations in real time on longer timeframe charts. The zone between 666.39 and 666.03 can be looked at as one big fat level, where you could choose to trade against one price in the middle somewhere, or scale in across both levels. The DJT did a decent job defending the 17,700 area but they haven't yet taken off to the upside enough to where it's noticeable. Not sure where they're going to open this morning, but if the bulls can keep price above 17,700 and keep climbing, that could help the SPY. Something to keep an eye on.

Again, the conservative approach when trading these Daily Levels on FOMC announcement days is to stop trading at 1:00 PM Eastern, and just sit back and enjoy the afternoon show. Our levels might work while price is whipsawing around - assuming they do whipsaw, but it's too risky to play in the rodeo - in my opinion, at least. Trade well today!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

The SPY continues to fall. Remember the gap left open down at 659.03 that we talked about in the most recent Weekly Recap video? And the 200-period moving average on the daily chart?  Who knows what will happen overnight with the futures. It will be interesting to see where they open tomorrow. But the point of the reminder about that open gap down at 659.03 was that it was three days ago that we said that that area would probably be important this week. And price is getting close to that area now. If you're following these Daily Recap blogs and watching the Weekly Recap videos, the narrative of the market and its ebbs and flows should become clearer to you. I'm trying to show you how to look at the market and read the charts. There's a lot of actionable information at your fingertips if you know where to look.

And by the way, after the close today, price continued a little lower, and they bounced twice (so far) in the post market off of 659.72. That was one of our Daily Levels published this morning before the opening bell. And it still worked after the close of the regular session. Interesting how that works.

For today, the trades were a little more challenging than usual. Here's what happened: After the first 15-minute candle closed, price was under 669.17. Going short in the E-minis when SPY hit 669.12 (the operating level with the 5-cent buffer applied) at 9:47 am was the plan. That reaction as price pulled back from that level gave you a Base Hit.

Then, price came down fast into 667.60 at 10:14 am. Going long at 667.65 (operating level) put you out of the money as price stalled under the level but couldn't get back above enough to hand over a Base Hit. No Fumble signal developed, so when price fell into the zone, the plan was to buy again at the next two levels farther down - at the zone of 666.39 and 666.03. That put your average entry price for the long position around 666.72. While price went a little lower and got close to the max loss limit threshold from the first level hit (667.60), it didn't quite get that low. And the new breakeven point had price still in play, until eventually a Fumble Signal developed and the trade was reversed. Price was 6 and a half S&P points out of the money at the reversal. Price continued to fall and a Base Hit was pulled on that combined position before price finally stabilized and the bulls got price to rebound a little. 

The next trade was a Recycle trade on the short side at the 667.60 level (using 667.55 as the operating level to trigger the short trade). That gave you a clean Base Hit.

Then, price messed around with the 667.60 level and the zone below it until 1:00 pm and beyond. So we entered no new trades after that point. 1:00 pm was our cut off.

Notice though, that at 2:35 pm, price bounced nicely at the 664.63 level. Even if it weren't an FOMC day, it's unlikely we would have traded that level - not unless there were other confirmations present at the time. See Game Plan from the this morning where we talked about 664.63. Net-net, we just about broke even after the Fumble on three levels and the subsequent reversal.

For what it's worth, I traded the levels a little differently. I averaged in on the long side starting at 667.60 and at the levels down at the 666.39 and 666.03 zone. Exactly as the rules stipulate. The difference is, I ignored the Fumble signal and held on a little longer - enough to ride the trade back into the money and I jumped out before price hit 667.60 from the underside. And yes, I went short at 667.60 too for the Recycle Trade. So, I ended up with many more points than if I had strictly followed the rules. And all I can say is that I had a gut instinct that price would find enough support in that zone to bounce higher. So the chance I took paid off.

We'll talk more in tomorrow's Game Plan about what might be going on with price. They could very well open tomorrow somewhere far from where they closed them today. I want to see what the Globex session looks in the morning like before I make any speculations about tomorrow. An interesting week so far. Good times..

Per the rules, a total of 0.5 ES points for the day.