Note: the screenshot above does show the levels for 2/19/2026, as identified before the opening bell, but the vertical line that delineates the market close time at 4:00 pm Eastern was not advanced to the end of the prior day (2/18/2026) per usual. The price action you see on the chart is from the prior day, 2/18/2026.

8:51 am Eastern  - That former axis level of 686.18 continued to be important overnight. In the premarket, price got under it, but at 8:00 am, we got the obligatory shuffle and price spiked up above that level for a couple minutes. They're currently back below and flirting with the bear axis for today, which is 684.02. Not sure if that 8:00 am shuffle means anything, but it's worth repeating that 700 is still a mid-to long-term target for the bulls. If opportunities present themselves that pave the way for higher prices, the bulls will take it.

For today, we're using yesterday's close at 686.30 as the bull axis. Getting back above and closing above is better for the bull case. That level at 686.30 isn't necessarily a tradable level, but there could be a reaction there. It's more of a gauge to test the potential tone of the market for the day - or at least the morning. So, only trade against 686.30 if you see multiple other reasons in real time that add credence to its importance as support or resistance.

There are a number of levels above current price that the bulls need to get on top of for them to re-establish a more bullish sentiment to the overall market - at least here in the SPY. And also note the the DJT (the transports) are doing a good job climbing back up the big breakdown candle(s) from last Thursday. They're likely to hit resistance again the closer they get to 20,000, but it's not the same now, since they've already tagged that level. The more times an important level is hit, the easier it becomes to finally break through. So the point is, if DJT is back up there, the SPY may be in a better position for the bulls to push harder for 700. 

On the flip side, the bear axis for today is 684.02. Getting below and closing candles of significance below this level is the first clue that the bears could have the upper hand. As we've mentioned before, there is no guarantee that the SPY sill hit 700, and if there is enough pull on the market to the downside, there are levels that will be lines in the sand for the bulls to fight. If they lose those battles, a bigger reset could be starting - as we've postulated before. We can talk more about that if it happens. The first important line in the sand for the bulls is still the 675.00 to 673.50 zone, as explained in this Weekly Recap Video.

There could be some movement introduced at 10:00 am Eastern today courtesy of some data releases, but it's probably a coin flip whether something happens. Nothing major most likely. It's good to be aware of where you're at around that time, though. Trade well today!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

At the close of the 9:45 am candle, price was above 684.02. Your order activation to trigger a long trade in the E-minis was set. Price fell back into 684.02 and the battle continued. The bulls prevailed and you pulled your first Base Hit within a few minutes. Price never got to the bulls axis of 686.30, let alone get on top of it. The pull back down from that area was a clue that lower prices were possible for the near term - at least for today. 

Price got under 684.02, the bear axis and retested it, first at 11:55 am - which was too soon to attempt a Recycle Trade on the short side. But the next visit at 12:18 pm was trader's choice. Technically, it was withing the parameters of the rules of this strategy, although with the first hit at 11:55, it would have been prudent to reduce position size, in case the level didn't hold as overhead resistance. But it was the bear axis, and price was below. The odds were still good at this point in time that lower prices were coming. So going short at 684.02 for the Recycle Trade gave you Base Hit number two.

Price did, in fact, fall more and came into 681.98. Going long there was the plan, but at 12:59 pm there was a Near Miss as price bounced more than 4 ES points after coming within 10 cents of the operating level of 682.03. So that level was off the table at that point. They came close - within pennies - and still didn't hit the operating level before bouncing again about 12 points. A little bit of a heartbreaker because the level was clearly important and worked well as support. Getting into the trade just didn't work if you played by the rules and traded conservatively.

Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.