SPY Levels & Game Plan
Tuesday, March 3, 2026

9:20 am Eastern - It's showtime for the bulls. During the night, they let the futures pull price down to the zone that we've been talking about. Right now - at this moment, at least, it looks like the bearish consolidation pattern is playing out as we discussed (see link to Recap Video farther below). Either the bulls will defend the zone and the whole area will end up being support as price gets a lift from where they're at currently, or they fail to defend it sufficiently, and the bears use that as an opportunity to pull price down more from this zone area.
Also, remember the bottom two levels we had on the board from yesterday? They were 673.50 and 672.29. Neither one was hit during the regular session. But in the premarket this morning, they were targets. Price bounced from them - the level at 672.29 was especially important. It had been almost 24 hours from when I first identified those levels to when price finally got down there - and they were still good for support. Just want to point that out because it underlines the important of these levels. If you are following along each day with these Game Plans and post-market analysis for each day, you should start to see patterns of how the market works and how these levels consistently provide support and resistance and can be traded against if you understand the rules in which to do so. There is a continuous narrative arc, where no one day is an island. Everything is interconnected.
So, about today: we've got another day where increased volatility is likely. Price is currently in the middle of the long-term zone (between 675.00 and 672.00). This was discussed in last week's Recap Video, posted on YouTube Sunday evening. Check it out - you might learn something. We have more precise levels in the middle of and around that zone, but the big picture will be determined based on how well the bulls defend the whole thing. It may not be just a one-day thing. Anything can happen in the market at any time, and today, the odds are increased that price can get whippy. So be careful if you choose to put money at risk. Reduce position size, etc.
While the zone is important, it's possible for the entire thing to be spiked by a lot. If that happens, the level at 670.70 can be the gauge for if the bears are able to open the door wider to lower prices. 670.70 is the bear axis. It can be traded against, but it would be better if you see more signs and signals on larger timeframe charts before making a decision to trust it as support. The only level below the bear axis that I'm comfortable with including on the chart is 664.61. No telling if price will get that low today. Anything can happen. Like, if the bulls do come out and defend the zone, we could see a rally. That is also a possibility. As such, the levels above current price need to be treated cautiously - especially if price is moving fast. They are simply levels that under normal market conditions should act as interim resistance. You don't need to trade every level. It's always best to try to narrow down the levels that have the highest chance of providing a reaction - and you do that by confirming additional reasons that bull/bear battles should happen there via information you get from larger timeframe charts as you observe price move through time.
Price is currently below all the moving averages on all timeframes from weekly and shorter. Yes, that's bearish, but when price gets extended that far, there can be some snap backs as price tries to stabilize. So, again, anything can happen today. A successful defense of the zone and a snap back as the bulls take the ball - or possibly a failure, which would probably introduce some whipsaw action into the market. And for what it's worth, the other markets I track are setting up to gap lower at the open too. We could have a rodeo. Be careful and trade well if you choose to put money at risk today.
After the closing bell...

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:
The Game Plan and Levels were on point today. If you followed it, and traded the levels we had today, you would have made money. Every level worked. Even with a high-volatility day, the schematic we had going in to the regular session worked as planned.
Starting at the close of the first 15-minute candle, Base Hit number on was the short at 673.50. Then another Base Hit on the long side on 672.29 at 9:51 am. At 10:21 am am, you got your third Base Hit with the bounce at the bear axis at 670.70. There were several good reasons that that level was going to act as longer-term support. It did. The low of the day before the bulls started rallying. The bulls defended the bear axis, and we had the plan spelled out before the opening bell. It helps to know what you're looking for.
The fourth trade would have been the Recycle Trade on the short side of 672.29 but at 10:37, there was a Near Miss, which took that Recycle Trade on the short side off the table. Fifth Base Hit was a short a 675.78. In case you're wondering, there was no Recycle Trade on the short side of 673.50, because that level had already been shorted right after the opening bell, giving us the first Base Hit.
After the short at 675,78, the fifth Base Hit was a short at 677.26 at 11:46 am. It took a few minutes, but no rules were broken in the development of that trade. Base Hit number six was at 678.72 at 1:02 pm. Quick Base Hit. The final Base Hit - number seven was the short at 682.42 at 2:46 pm If all you took was 4 ES points for each Base Hit, that's 28 points total. Not a bad way to start out the month of March.
Per the rules, a total of 28 ES points for the day.
Tracking log to-date for 2026:

