9:10 am Eastern  -  Ok, so whether it was related or not, the recent drop in the DJT as we discussed beforehand, did have some effect on SPY. The thing is, SPY didn't get to 700 first before they fell. The bulls have had plenty of chances to get up there, but they keep giving in to the bears near the highs and letting price drop. So now we're into Friday - the last day of the week, and it's showtime for the bulls to play defense. Price needs to stay above 676.10 for the bulls to still be a safe zone for the midterm. Remember last week when we said that if price starts messing around with 675.00, that could be a place where a bigger pullback can happen. And don't forget, there is plenty of room on the downside on the weekly and monthly charts for price to reset down to lower support areas - and the big picture still remain bullish.

For today, the bulls need to get above 685.75 and start closing hourly candles above to put them in a better position to erase the pull back from yesterday. That is the bull axis for today. There are other moving averages on the mid and shorter term charts that price got under yesterday. So these could present a challenge for the bulls to climb. Anything can happen in the market at any time, of course. The levels on the board for today are places where battles are likely, but when panic selling starts and everyone is running for the exits, it exacerbates pullbacks - as we saw yesterday.

If price drops again today and gets under the levels on the board below current price, the line in the sand where the bulls need to step in is 676.10. Staying under that level for much time opens the door for 675. And as we know, below 675 is not good for the bulls. There are other levels on the board that are currently valid as support for today that are under 675. But it depends on what things look like on the larger time frames as to the level's importance. Look for signals in real time if/when price approaches those lower levels. No data releases of significance scheduled for today. Trade well.

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

Price stayed under the bull axis of 685.75 and above the the bear axis of 676.10 all day. And the closing price in the SPY for the day was within pennies of the opening price. A classic doji candle. Volume was a little higher than average for the day. There is indecision in the market right now. This will be analyzed and discussed further in the Weekly Recap Video which will be posted this coming Sunday, February 15.  For now, let's look at how the levels from the morning worked if you were playing by the rules.

After the close of the first 15-minute candle, price was rocketing up toward 681.27. There was already a solid bounce at 678.20 which made price bust through 679.50, but both those levels were hit before our 15-minute window opened so they weren't traded against prior to 9:45 am. If you were not willing to jump the gun and buy down at 678.20 when the level was hit at 9:42 am, then you missed the 40-point rally that happened within a few minutes. I wish I had jumped on board for part of that ride up, but I've been trying to stay very disciplined and trade by my own rules - so I missed that bounce. 

But going short at 681.27 at 9:46 am was the plan, and after a spike above, price came back down a few minutes later and gave you the Base Hit. Price continued down to 679.50 again, and going long at that level was the plan, but there was a Near Miss at 10:00 am, when price found a low of 679.56. That was one penny away from our operating level and therefore did not trigger the long trade in the E-minis. A little bit of a heartbreaker, because there was a nice bounce from 679.50 at that time.

When price got above 681.27 in a bigger way and came back down and hit it at 10:47 am, it was valid for a Recycle Trade on the long side. There was a lot of bouncing around that level prior to the 10:47 hit, and it was a little risky to go long there - it would have been better if price had gotten above 681.27 for over 20 minutes and was coming back down into it for the first time. Trading against with those kind of parameters is a good way for Recycle Trades to work. But regardless, price bounced there and got away from 681.27, giving you your Second Base Hit.

When the bulls got up to their axis level at 685.75, it was time for the bears to defend it. Ultimately they did, and drove priced back down - but it took awhile. Meanwhile, at 12:08 pm, price got within 10 cents of the operating level and pulled back about 6 points or so. And that effectively took 685.75 off the table for future short trades. It was a Near Miss. Clearly, 685.75 was important in the bigger picture, and with enough time, it did provide ample resistance as price was pushed back down from that area. But we're not counting it as an official profitable trade because the Tracking Log needs to remain accurate.

Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.