9:20 am Eastern - There is still choppiness in the SPY. The bulls in the SPY and IWM are trying to hold the status quo while the bears in the DJT took control over the past couple days - as we suspected they would. Yesterday was another down day in the transports. There is a good chance the DJT will close today with a big reversal candle for the week. If that happens, the SPY is more likely to pull down from next week - maybe even starting today.

As it often happens, a level we had on the board from yesterday that wasn't hit during the regular session was hit and provided a good reaction in the opposite direction - after the closing bell. Remember 713.29 from yesterday? That was the highest official level on the board yesterday. It was hit nearly to the penny at about 7:30 am Eastern this morning, and price pulled back a lot. Now, with about 18 minutes until the opening bell, price is still below that level, but above the axis zone, which is down between 706.10 to 705.50. Like with yesterday, the axis zone is not designed to be traded against with the precise levels. It's more of a gauge. If price gets below this zone and closes hourly candles below it, the bears could be gearing up to pull price down more.

The more price stays on top of that whole axis zone, the better for the bulls. There can still be a pull back out of the blue (just look at the DJT), but the SPY isn't as "overextended" like the DJT was - but they're in the neighborhood. A dip or two below the zone and a good reversal signal somewhere could be all that's needed for the bears to wake up again.

See notes at the bottom of the Tracking Log below to see how the levels worked for today. The data you see in the Log below represents all of 2026 to-date. The rate of return and other metrics assume a starting balance of $50,000 on January 2, 2026, and two (2) ES contracts traded at each level each day, following all the rules of the Ticks & Trades strategy.

Click anywhere on the Log to enlarge the image.