9:37 am Eastern - SPY is still stalled and going sideways around Friday's highs. The close on Friday was 713.95. The bulls would be in better shape to continue the short squeeze if they keep price above 713.95. Getting below and establishing closes below 713.95 opens the door for the levels lower down, where the bulls would need to play defense.

That being said, there are divergences in the market now. The DJT has a reversal signal on its weekly chart. While they were dropping last week, the SPY continued its grind higher. The IWM stalled out too, maybe to a slightly greater degree than the SPY. If we are to see the transports and IWM lead the SPY, then something is likely to happen in SPY to where they start obeying the law of gravity - like the DJT did last week. It may be just a relatively small correction in the SPY, but it's possible for sellers to come out this week.

There are no data releases scheduled for today, but by the end of this week, there will be cyclical timing events lining up. So we need to be on the lookout for increased selling in the SPY. It could start this week sometime. At face value though, the SPY is bullish on all timeframes. As per usual, we have levels above and below current price designed for base hit trades in the E-mini futures. While a continued grind higher / short squeeze - whatever you want to call it - can continue, there can also be a relief sell-off out of the blue. For today, we'll use 713.95 to about 714.00 as the axis area. Hourly closes above favors the bull case. Hourly closes below favors the bear case.

See notes at the bottom of the Tracking Log below to see how the levels worked for today. The data you see in the Log below represents all of 2026 to-date. The rate of return and other metrics assume a starting balance of $50,000 on January 2, 2026, and two (2) ES contracts traded at each level each day, following all the rules of the Ticks & Trades strategy.

Click anywhere on the Log to enlarge the image.