SPY Levels & Game Plan
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
8:52 am Eastern - We've got a little pullback in the premarket. Price has returned to a level that has been important since Friday, April 17. It is 709.68. It took about a week for the bulls to get on top and make an effort to get good closes above it. By yesterday, price was still grinding higher, but so far, with about an hour until the opening bell on Tuesday 4/28 as I write this, price has been pulled back down into the 709.68 area. This level is our axis level for today. The bulls are in better shape if they can keep price above this level and sustain closes above. But it price gets pulled down under it, that could introduce some bigger swings if the bear come out and more selling gets underway.
Trading against the axis level of 709.68 is a coin flip in terms of probability - at least for a short term scalp trade as we typically do with our Base Hit approach in the E-mini futures. The level is more of a long-term level that could take more time for support and/or resistance to be established. Therefore, trading against it could work if more clues are present on longer timeframe charts. Again, it could take more time for things to play out if/when the bulls and bears fight it out in that area. By default, it is not an official Daily Level - it's more of a gauge for future price action.
Above that, we have another axis level at 715.18. That is yesterday's close. If the bulls succeed in getting price back up there, they'd need to get some hourly closes above that level to possibly re-engage and push higher. It's our bull axis for today.
The other levels are typical and designed for Base Hits to be traded in accordance with our rules. Today is the first day of the 2-day FOMC meeting for April. At 2:00 pm Eastern tomorrow, April 29, there will be news that could move price around. So in the meantime, there is a chance that things could slow down as the market waits on that news event. We're also nearing the end of the month of April. I'm curious to see if there will be an effort by the bears to get price back down to the 700 area and try to close the month below 700. If they succeed in doing that, the divergences we talked about in yesterday's Game Plan will be lessened, and we could see clearer signals across the difference markets. In the meantime, big picture is still bullish, but with the potential for a possible reset by the bears. The more the shorter timeframes start closing under important moving averages, the more likely we can see a "relief" reset where price pulls down to lower targets. It all starts on the shorter timeframes. There is a 10:00 am Consumer Confidence data release that we should be aware of. Trade well today.After the closing bell...
See notes at the bottom of the Tracking Log below to see how the levels worked for today. The data you see in the Log below represents all of 2026 to-date. The rate of return and other metrics assume a starting balance of $50,000 on January 2, 2026, and two (2) ES contracts traded at each level each day, following all the rules of the Ticks & Trades strategy.
Click anywhere on the Log to enlarge the image.
Tracking log to-date for 2026:
