SPY Levels & Game Plan
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
9:26 am Eastern - After yesterday's close, price stayed under the trendline and the middle of nowhere until 8:30 am Eastern, when price got a boost from some data releases. They went straight up to the trendline - the same zone we had on the board yesterday - and got above it after fighting it for a few minutes. We still have about 15 minutes until the opening bell, but for the time being at least, the bulls want us to think they have the ball. Staying above the trendline is good for the bull case. That fact doesn't change. And by the way, the trendline zone isn't listed above, but you can see it in the screenshot below. It's a reference. There are other levels right above and below it that might be more precise as tradeable levels today.
If the bulls can grind price higher, they'll likely run into some overhead resistance on the way up to 700. Those are reflected in the levels above current price that we have on the board for today. Up at 699.22, it's more of a doorway for the bulls to tag 700 and spike it if they can. It's the bull axis for today. Price has been hanging out under 700 for enough time, that there could be enough energy built up for price to spike above 700 more than would seem reasonable. Anything can happen in the market at any time, so be aware of the big picture. But it's worth mentioning again that it's hard to kill a bull and 700 is still a target.
Getting back below the trendline area and below 694.97 opens the door for the bears to try to pull price down again. Getting below yesterday's close and another level which comprise a zone between 692.12 and 691.66 is better for the bear case - at least for today. This bear axis zone is another reference area. Not tradeable levels. Pay attention to indicators on the longer timeframes before trading against the levels. Things are bullish right now, but big moves can come out of nowhere when price and time converge the right way. Trade well today.

After the closing bell...


Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:
The trades were easy today, if you stuck to the process. The bulls couldn't stay on top of the trendline, and fell. Meanwhile, how did the levels work out? The first Base Hit for 4 ES points was taken at 9:46 am, right after the first 15-minute candle closed. Going short as price went up and hit 695.95 (the operating level) put money in your pocket as price fell from that level.
Then, a few minutes later, price came down into 695.02 (the operating level) and you went long. That bounce gave you another 4 points. After that, those two levels were done for the day. Price never revisited them.
There were no trades entered at the bear axis zone, between 692. 12 and 691.66. That was a reference area to see if the bulls could defend it, or if the bears would win out by getting price under that zone, as defined in the Game Plan from this morning. That area was a coin flip in terms of probability. But under that zone was a level that was more important down at 689.27, and an area that the bulls would likely defend.
Sure enough, when price came down into 689.32 (operating level), price bounced in a bigger way there. Do you find it interesting that we can identify a level that's about 70 S&P points away from where price was at the open, and the level still act as support an hour after the opening bell? Over 75 points from the high of day, and price bounced almost precisely at our level. Almost seems like magic.
Now, if you were using the levels precisely and not giving them any wiggle room, there was no long trade triggered at the operating level because of a Near Miss at 10:25 am, where price came within 5 cents of the operating level - that's where the trade would have triggered the long position in the E-minis - and price bounced more than 4 points. That's a Near Miss. Cancelling the trigger activation was the plan. The level did end up working, as you can see, but we won't count that long trade since you were sticking to the process. For what it's worth, I went ahead and went long at the 689.27 level and pulled some dollars out of the market down there as price bounced.
FYI, the second "After the Closing Bell" screenshot above shows the operating levels that were hit. The chart is more zoomed in so you can see how price interacted with the operating levels.
Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.
Tracking log to-date for 2026:

