SPY Levels & Game Plan

Thursday, February 26, 2026


9:20 am Eastern  - Same story as yesterday - the bulls keep grinding higher. But this time, the market will open with price sitting right at a trendline that could cause some friction and get the bears to come out to defend. The trendline starts at about 694.00 and slopes down to about 693.70 by the close of today's regular session. It's not on the board as specific levels, but know that the trendline is there and can affect the trajectory of price in the near term. If price stays above yesterday's close of 693.15, then the door is open for the bulls to fight to get above and start closing above that trendline. The level at 695.42 is the bull axis for today. Getting above is better in the longer term for the bulls.

SPY 700 is still on the table as a target for the bulls. Anything is possible in the market, as you know. If a surge comes out of nowhere that give the bulls the energy needed to break out above the highs, then it means they'll likely want to tag 700. It's within reach. And a short squeeze above 700 isn't out of the question. But there likely won't be a wide-open door for the bulls from where they're at currently to get to 700. There is resistance above current price.  

If the bulls can keep up the momentum and get over 695.42 and establish closes above 695.42, they should be in a better position to keep climbing. Therefore, 695.42 is the bulls axis. However, under normal market conditions, the level at 696.14 - and really all the way up to about 696.75 - is an area that could cause some trouble for the bulls. If price gets up there today, we'll have that area above 696.14 a safety net that could help being in a short position against 696.14. As always, it's good to know what price and time look like on the longer timeframe charts.

If price gets below 693.15 and starts closing 10, 15, 30-minute, and longer candles, the door could open for a pull back. Therefore, 693.15 is the bear axis for today. There are no data releases scheduled for today. Be alert for unusual market activity though. Price is getting into decision-making territory. It's possible for volatility to pick up if price gets up above the trendline and into one or more of the other levels above. Trade well today!


After the closing bell...


Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

Yes, there was friction at the trendline right at the opening bell and the bears took the ball and drove price down in the morning. This was a good possibility and we talked about it in the Game Plan. This was also why you didn't see many levels below where price was at the open. It intentional to not have too many places that could get us into trouble if price fell hard.

They drove price down a relative large amount in a short amount of time. Did we have levels that worked to produce trades today? Only one level was hit after 9:45 am, at 690.16, and it gave a Near Miss of the profit objective, even though price did react and bounced enough for a Base Hit a few minutes later. When price came back down to the entry level after being triggered - without handing over a Base Hit first - that was the warning signa that told us staying on the long side at that level was probably not a good idea. So, jumping out of the trade at break even was the plan. No points gained, and no points given back to the market. For what it's worth, I scaled in with multiple contracts at and below the 690.16 level, so that lowered my entry point. I took only 4 points, but it was a good counter-trend Base Hit for me considering the downward momentum at that point in the morning session. After that, no more levels from what we had on the board were hit, so no more trades taken.

Per the rules, a total of 0 ES points for the day.


Tracking log to-date for 2026:



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