8:52 am Eastern  - Review yesterday's Game Plan and post-market analysis to understand better why price dropped yesterday. The quick version is that the trendline was the pivot point and price got under the bear axis level (which was 693.15) and quickly started accumulating closes of significance under it. That scenario was in how we framed the day before the opening bell. And as we've been saying - when price is in the middle of stuff, they can go in either direction in bigger-than-usual moves. For now, the bears have succeeded yet again in thwarting the bull's attempt to test the former highs. And today is the last day of the week and month. Where things stand right now, the weekly candle is poised to turn into a down candle - depending how things play out today. A good number of points were given back to the market yesterday. 

So, what about today?

Price in the premarket has dripped lower and is currently well below yesterday's close. Price is squarely in the middle of the big-picture range that SPY has been constrained in since the beginning of January. As of now, they are closer to the bottom of the range. The 675.00 to 673.50 zone is still important, but there are closer levels that the bulls will need to defend before that zone is reached. There should be battles at the levels of support today - good enough for Base Hits if the market is acting normal. And market behavior is key. Things are likely to be less than normal today.

Getting above yesterday's close of 689.30 would be a start for the bulls if they want to regain some of the ground they lost. That level is the main axis level for today. Above is better for the bulls - especially if they can get good closes above it. Below 689.30 with  good closes is better for the bears.  

The low of yesterday was 684.36 and in the premarket, price has gotten below it. We have about an hour before the market opens, so things can change. For right now, though, some 8:30 am data releases have affected price and pushed it down. The levels on the board should still be areas of support and/or resistance during the regular session, depending on how price comes into the levels. Following the trade management rules of the strategy is important - and when there is increased volatility in the market, often times, it's better to sit back and observe rather than to play in the rodeo. 

There is a 100-period moving average on the daily chart that is currently at about 681.04 for today. That is in between two other official levels we have on the board for today. Knowing where that 100-period MA is important, because there could be good support in that general area today. When price has moved a lot in the previous trading day and/or overnight, the probabilities are increased that there could be bigger-than-usual moves during the next open session as price tries to stabilize. They've already bounced off two of our levels for today, which tells us the levels are important. But, if it's more comfortable for you to sit back and observe, that is perfectly understandable. For myself, I'd rather wait for the highest probability trade setups in the futures. I may miss big moves, but getting bites of the apple (Base Hits) works for me. They add up over time.

There is another data release at 9:45 am that could move price around. So, it's possible we'll have a whippy market today. Volatility will likely be high. Be careful and trade well - if you choose to put money at risk today. 

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

It's fair to say that today was somewhat whippy. About a 50 S&P point range from the low to high. While price ultimately climbed from the open to where they closed for the day, the gap lower at the open this morning, coupled with the weakness in the overnight/premarket session turned the weekly and monthly candles into red, down candles. It may not mean much as the big picture (weekly and monthly charts) are still bullish, but there are some things to discuss in the next weekly recap coming out this weekend - most likely on Sunday, March 1.

For today, here's how the levels worked. Only two levels were hit and both influenced price. At the close of the first 15-minute candle, price was under 682.82, after whipsawing all over the place around that level. On top of it, under it 10-15 points or so on both sides, in just minutes. Whipsaw action as we predicted. While price was under the level when the window of opportunity opened (close of the 9:45 am candle) and the trade would have been a short position against 682.77 (the operating level to trigger the E-mini trade), I was of the opinion that that the 682.82 level would end up being longer-term support for the day, so I did not go short there. If you did short it, and played by the rules, you would have quickly received a Near Miss of the profit objective and bailed out of the trade at or near your entry price. So that was a wash, playing by the rules.

As I said, I saw the level as more support than resistance - so I waited until price got back on top of the level, and waited for a re-test and I went long around 9:59 am. I pulled more than a Base Hit as price pulled away from that level and climbed. The next level hit was 685.30. That provided a nice clean and quick Base Hit on the short side at 10:09 am. I took that trade too, by the way, and pocketed more money.

Notice in the Tracking Log below that the rate of return for 2026 so far is 20%. Recall that January got off to a slow start with only 7% return for the month. February itself returned 13%. So we're at 20% and taking the bad days with the good. Base Hits are what it's all about. They pile up over time. When you trade the futures this way, pretty soon you're in double-digit returns for the year and it keeps climbing. Where would your 5% APY CD be at this point in the year? Less than 1%, right? Yes, something like 0.8%. Just food for thought. Get the Daily Levels and the Game Plan HERE if you're interested in joining the traders who are consistently making money. Thank you.

Per the rules, a total of 4 ES points for the day.