SPY Levels & Game Plan

Wednesday, March 4, 2026


9:11 am Eastern  - What we are looking at in this morning's premarket activity, is the bulls holding on to the momentum they got yesterday as they bounced from the zone down at 675.00 to 672.00. If the bulls were going to defend that zone yesterday, there was still a chance they could let price dip below the zone, probably shake out a lot of inexperienced traders, then start the rally in earnest once they got price above the top of the zone. That's exactly what they did - dipped down into our bear axis of 670.70 from yesterday, found support and have done a good job climbing out of this most recent pull back. And if you had the Game Plan from yesterday, you were prepared for what happened.

So for today, there are levels above current price that should present some challenges for the bulls. If price stays above 682.42, which is the bull axis for today, they can be in a better position to keep grinding higher. Some of the levels above current price are relatively close together, when you take into account the likelihood of increased volatility again today. So treat them with caution. It's better if you can find other clues on longer time frames that validate the importance of each level's support and resistance potential. And adjust position size as appropriate to minimize risk.

Getting below and closing below 682.42 opens the door to the bear axis of 678.22. That level needs to be defended if the bulls want to maintain the mid-term upward pressure. There is a lot of space between the bull and bear axis levels, but I don't feel comfortable using any levels in that area, because it's possible the whole area can be a chop shop. The biggest risk I see today is a strong rally where the bulls try extra hard to bust through the levels and areas of resistance above where they're at now.

With 25 minutes before the opening bell as I write this, price is hovering at and slightly above the bull axis level of 682.42. At the open, we'll probably see price get whipped around a bit. There is also a 10:00 am (Eastern) PMI data release. So probably best to let the market settle in for a bit before looking for opportunities. Waiting until the first 15 minutes goes by before trading against the levels does mean you'll miss some good opportunities, but there is an almost equal chance that you'll avoid getting on the wrong side of levels that get hit early - within that first 15 minutes of the regular session. Typically, price settles down after 15 minutes and moves and reactions are more predictable. Be careful again today, and trade well.


After the closing bell...


Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

What can we say? There was a lot of green on the screen today. Five Base Hits.

Your first trade was a short when SPY hit 682.42 at 10:01 am. Quick trade of at least 4 points. Next trade was a short at 684.17, and you added to the position by buying the same number of contracts (or more, if you could afford to do so), when price went higher and hit 685.62. That area up there had good potential for overhead resistance and it was worth waiting for the trade to develop. That trade might not have been easy - to be out of the money from the 684.17 and then adding to the position higher up at the next level hit, but taking those chances and letting the trade develop is an example of how some of these trades work, following the strategy we use here. That gave you a Base Hit on the combined position. So that counted as profitable trade number 2 and number 3. 

Then the 4th Base Hit was the Recycle Trade taken on the long side of 684.17 at 10:46 am. When price finally got above 685.62 for the right amount of time, the Recycle on the long side of 685.62 at 12:22 pm was the trade. Price bounced at the level several more times. Playing by the rules, you would have taken just one trade on the long side. The first hit is the best hit.

Per the rules, a total of 20 ES points for the day.


Tracking log to-date for 2026:



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