SPY Levels & Game Plan
Thursday, March 5, 2026

9:00 am Eastern - During the regular session yesterday, the SPY got up to a high of 687.09. They didn't make it to a level we had on the board at 687.85. In the overnight session, however, that level was hit (price came within 2 cents of the operating level of 687.80) and pulled away. That area was still overhead resistance, even after the regular session. Price has been pulled down over 40 S&P points since it hit that resistance.
So where does that put price now? It puts price very much in the middle of the rollover-looking range that started to take shape in early January. We've been saying the whole time that either the bulls will get enough energy built up during this big-picture sideways consolidation to get back up to the former highs and break out to tag SPY 700 - or the bulls fail buy getting below and closing daily and weekly candles below the low of the zone, which is 672.00. When price is in the middle of this large range, they can go anywhere. The bulls have let price get under some important moving averages. Under normal market conditions, that kind of behavior is likely to eventually hand control over to the bears. We've had some edge-of-the-cliff moments lately. The test of the zone on Tuesday may have started to look serious, but as we know, the bulls defended that area and price has been elevated. But the bulls are not in the clear unless that can close daily candles above 696.00. They have areas of overhead resistance fight and get through above current price before they even get close to 696.00.
Also, the transports (DJT) have been climbing the big breakdown candle from where they hit 20,000 and fell hard. The timing is getting good for a decision to be made over in DJT. They might try for 20,000 again, but they'll need to get a could daily closes above 21,000 to take the bearish consolidation off the table. If that doesn't happen, and enough resistance is met up where price is now - it could be today or tomorrow - soon, at least... then price is likely to fall again in the DJT. And if that happens, the SPY will probably follow. Maybe not immediately, but eventually. Something to keep an eye on.
With all that being said, you'll notice that there are a number of relatively close-together levels on the top of the board today. First, the bulls need to get above 685.14 and establish some good closes above it (10, 15, 30-minute and longer candles) to strengthen the bull case. 685.14 is the bull axis. The level at 687.85 was the level we had on the board yesterday where price met resistance during the overnight session. It may work again for a reaction and a Base Hit, but it would be good to have other confirmations from longer timeframes first before trading against it. Above 687.85 are more levels that could appear to be close together if price is moving fast. Not every level needs to be traded against, but each of those levels has its own importance, so that's why they're all included on the board. There is resistance up there.
Below current price (as of 30 minutes before the opening bell) we have the bear axis of 681.61. It is a level that the bulls need to defend to help their case. If they give up 681.61 and start closing below that level, the bear case is strengthened. Don't forget about the zone between 675.00 to 672.00. It's still important. When price is in the middle of stuff like it is now, volatility might not be as prevalent as when price is on the precipice as it has been at other times this week. But even so, look for other reasons - clues and signals - on longer timeframes before trading against the levels, and pay attention to timing (timing is explained in the E-mini Trading 101 course). There are no data releases of significance scheduled for today. Trade well.
After the closing bell...

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:
Another great day. The levels delivered. Six total Base Hits. In Eastern time, here are the trades at the levels, in order:
Trade #1: Short at 685.14 entered @ 10:01 am = Base Hit
Trade #2: Long at 681.61 entered @ 10:23 am = Base Hit (the trade gave you 4 ES points and then price turned around and kept falling. Another reason to be willing to take the minimum)
Trade #3: Long at 679.63 entered @ 10:31 am = Base Hit
Trade #4: Short at 681.61 for Recycle Trade entered at 12:04 pm - Base Hit (the retest of 681.61 at 10:41 am happened too soon after price got under the level. Shorting at 12:04 pm gave you another opportunity.)
Trade #5: Long at 677.64 @ 12:32 am = Base Hit
(Attempted) Trade #6: Short at 677.64 @ 1:07 pm = Not triggered. Price came within 3 cents of operating level before pulling back 4+ points. Activation trigger aborted.
Trade #6: Short at 679.63 for for Recycle Trade entered @ 3:24 pm = Base Hit
And by the way, the DJT fell a lot today. We talked about that being being a possibility in this mornings Game Plan. The timing was right for a fall. The question is now, will the SPY follow the DJT tomorrow - or within the next few trading days? Stay tuned for tomorrow's Game Plan. We'll put it all together and have something to work with before the market opens.
Per the rules, a total of 24 ES points for the day.
Tracking log to-date for 2026:

