9:15 am Eastern  - The first week of March has been a ride. Wide moves most days. We're waking up to a gap lower this morning. With about 45 minutes until the opening bell, price is back down in the middle of the all-important zone. Anything can happen while price is in between 675.00 and 672.00. It will be the daily and weekly closes above or below that will help us determine the next likely direction for the SPY. As you probably know, geo-political events are ramping up. Crude oil futures are on a rip. That tends to happen when countries start lobbing bombs at each other - especially when it's happening in the middle east. Also, the transports - the DJT - had a big down day yesterday, as we predicted could happen. If that pull back continues, it increases the chance that the SPY might follow suit soon. That's the big picture stuff.

Again, nothing changes in the big picture. The SPY needs to stay above the zone and fight to get some daily closes above 686.00 for the door to open for the bulls to once again try for the former highs  - if they're still serious about tagging 700. There has been some profit-taking already ahead of 700, and we're seeing some of the effects of that. Remember how in the weekly recap videos we've talked about where price is relative to the monthly moving averages - it's a bullish chart and they can pull down a lot and keep the overall bullish trend intact. The weekly chart is looking weaker, but still technically bullish. They've dipped below the weekly 20-period MA several times in the last several weeks, but they've managed to get back above to close the week in the safe zone. But what might today be like - at least as it pertains to our levels and scalp trading approach in the ES futures?

Today, they are in danger of closing below that moving average today, call it 683.15 or a few pennies higher by the end of today - and if they do, it would be the first weekly close below that moving average in a long time - since early May, 2025. If that happens again today, it could mean something in the big picture. Once again, the bulls need to defend the 675.00 to 672.00 zone and get price to stay above, otherwise the bears are likely to get a bigger sell program going. Right now, the weekly 20-period MA is about 683.11. It's variable of course, and will be a few pennies higher by the end of the day. But that is the area the bulls need to get today to close above. Not saying they'll do it, but anything is possible. It's just something we need to keep in mind as the day progresses. If the bulls can get back up above 686.68 - which is our main axis level for today - and close above it today, that could mean they're fighting hard. Right now, there is a lot of things against the bull case. What does that typically mean, especially when price is on a precipice? It means increased volatility. So be careful trading today, if you choose to put money at risk. We've had a good week so far trading our levels. Today could be good as well, or it might not. Pay attention to the big picture before trading against the levels. There's a lot going on...

As far as our other levels, they are typical. In a "normal" market, they're places where a bull/bear battle is probable. But you know the big picture now, so understand that price can move a lot and spike levels. There are destinations and targets for both the bulls and the bears, and they will fight to get to where they want price by the close of today. If price does start to rally, the levels above current price can be places where a Base Hit can be pulled if price approaches the levels the right way. If price keeps falling, I have nothing under 664.61 that I'm comfortable with including on the board today. But FYI, there is an area around 662.00, plus or minus about 50 cents that could be support. And also there's an unfilled gap at 659.00. Keep an eye on those areas if price gets down that far today. Again, be careful and trade well. Talk to you in the next weekly recap video, which should be posted this coming Sunday.

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

First, let's bring attention to the fact that the weekly close was decisively below the 20-period MA. Is this the shot across the bow? The canary in the coal mine? This will be discussed in the upcoming Weekly Recap Video. Stay tuned.

For today, can you see which two levels the market thought were important. It was an easy day, despite the potential for increased volatility and big moves. The levels we had on the board today took that possibility into consideration. We only use the highest-probability levels, and today two of them delivered easy trades.

First Base Hit was a short against 671.37 entered at 9:46 am. You waited for the first fifteen minutes to tick by, then you grabbed the short trade as soon as that window of opportunity opened. Operating level was 671.32. Four ES points (or more if you were adventurous) was quick and easy. 

Then price got above the 671.37 level and made its way up to... where? The next level we had on the board. The operating level of 675.95 was 675.90 - remember, we use a 5-cent buffer to help thwart front-runners. Price went up to 675.92. That was at 10:39 am. The short trade there handed you your second Base Hit. Price fell a lot more than just the 4-point minimum. Since you know the possibility is pretty good that the levels will give much more than just the basic 4-point Base Hit, one way to play these level is to trade like 4 ES contracts at the level, take 3 off at the Base Hit profit objective, then trail the remaining 1 contract for more points. In the case of the short trade against the operating level of 675.90, you may have been able to squeeze another 30 S&P points out of that trade. The levels work.

This week has been great. Check out the Tracking Log below. 84 total ES points if you played by the rules and traded every level. I got a chunk out of each day myself. If you are a subscriber to the Daily Levels & Game Plan Subscription, thank you. And you're welcome for the levels this week. I hope you made plenty of money. Even if you were only trading one ES contract, this week alone would have netted you $4,200., Your monthly subscription to the Daily Levels was paid for on the first day of March. Heck, even if you were only trading one MICRO ES contract at each of the levels, you would have more than paid for the month's subscription. Two days in and you'd be ahead of the curve. 

One more thing I want to brag about. See the win ratio as of today? We're at 80%. I told you it would rise. Now, the long term win rate is 78.61%. But still, am I allowed to brag about 2026 so far? January's sub-par performance has been over-compensated by now. Looking forward to another good year. And I hope you are too.

Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.