9:21 am Eastern  - Let's explain the levels first:

Yesterday's close was 678.27. Price needs to get back on top and start closing above that level for the bulls to be in a better position to keep climbing. It's the bull axis for today. There is overhead resistance above this level, starting at 682.76, which is the high end of a trendline sloping down. By the close of the regular session, that trendline will be about 681.50. That trendline can be a place of overhead resistance, but there are also levels above it that price could be attracted to if the bulls continue to hold on to the ball. 

684.17 is the beginning of more resistance, but I like 685.04 a little better. If price is up there, that whole area could work to push price back down. Unless the bulls get a good rally going and are able to bust through levels, this area could be a good place where they'll run into resistance. The levels that are shown in light blue may be less important than the ones shown in dark blue. So, if you choose to trade against them, scale in appropriately. If price is moving fast, levels can be spiked.

Above that is a zone between 689.58 and 690.17. Those are more typical levels, and since they're close together, a position can be scaled in, or pick a level in the middle - or toward the top. You know that in the Tracking Log we treat zones like this as individual levels. The levels are close enough together where you may want to consider your position size if you choose to go short there.

Down at 672.27, that should be a level that the bulls need to defend. It's the bear axis for today. Price could react there if the level is approached the right way, but getting closes under that level could mean the bears have the ball. Then that would bring the lower levels into play, starting at 666.37. Those are typical levels down at the bottom of the board, designed for Base Hits. If you reviewed the "After the Closing Bell" commentary from yesterday about how the levels performed there were a couple levels that just barely gave 4 ES points as price reacted - then price continued to plow right through the level, after the 4-points were handed over. This is why we need to be satisfied with 4-point Base Hits. Just let them add up over time. Check out yesterday's Recap here.

There may be some movement at 10:00 am Eastern with a data release. Might be nothing, but keep it in mind, all the same. Trade well today.

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

We erased all 20 points that we gained yesterday. It happened with one max loss limit that was hit when price got above the bulls axis (yesterday's daily close), and didn't pull back. At the open, price opened below that axis level, quickly went up to the level, spiked it and fell away from it. They messed around under the level until about 10:30 am, when they revisited it. Strictly playing by the rules, a short position was entered against 678.27 at that time. Price pulled back a little, but not enough. Once price got above the level, the bulls took over. At 20 points OTM, the plan was to bail out of the trade. So the day started off behind the curve. 

The next trade was a short against 682.76 at 1:20. The operating level was 682.,72 and price hit it precisely - a penny above. But the pull back didn't quite hit the 4-point base hit profit objective. Or rather, price did not pull back 40 cents in the SPY. But it appears that in the ES, there was a 4-point reaction down before price returned to the breakeven point. I did not take that trade, so I can't say from first-hand experience. But since I like to keep the Tracking Log conservative, I'm not counting this short trade against 682.76 as a Base Hit. It's in keeping with the rules, and how all the other trades are logged. It should be clear though, that the level at 682.76 was indeed the resistance that was needed to drive price back down. It was the trendline that we pointed out in the morning Game Plan. If you gave the levels more wiggle room and looked for other confirmations, you may have been able to turn that short trade into profit.

The next trade would have been a long trade against 682.76 for a Recycle Trade at about 2:14 pm. But price came within 10 cents of the operating level and bounced a lot. Way more than a Base Hit's worth of points. So when price did come back and hit the level a couple minutes later, the level was off the table by then. No trade because of that Near Miss. But again, we should point out that the level was obviously support. The levels are important. We treat this thing as a process though. Not taking the long trade when the level was finally hit was the conservative approach - in case they gave it up and got below the level quickly. It happens sometimes. So, no more points after the 20-point give back in the morning. 

In a way, I'm kind of glad that max loss limit trade happened today after more than a week's worth of great trades. It just goes to show that whenever a day ends a loser, it doesn't really matter in the long run. I'm not suggesting that it might happen, or that I want it to happen, but say that we got several more days of bad trades and gave a lot more points back to the market soon. What if this time next week we erased 10 or more percentage points from our rate of return? We'd be at 20-something percent return for 2026. And is that a bad thing? There are many traders who would love 20 percent in one year. But I digress. Today was just a down day. No no big deal. 

Per the rules, a total of -20 ES points for the day.