9:15 am Eastern  - Hang on tight. Today could get very bumpy. At 7:06 am EST, the futures started a rally that took price over 230 S&P points in about 5 minutes. And there has been some violent back and forth since then. Now, with about 30 minutes until the opening bell as I write this, price is trying to climb higher, but there's no guarantee this whole premarket rally/shuffle/rodeo - whatever you want to call it - isn't just a big fake out. There are still plenty of reasons the bears would be able to pull price down a lot from where they're at. But looking at what we have in front of us, the bulls are up to something. Do they have what it takes to get back on top of the trendline and zone that we've been working with for the past month or more? 

The trendline runs from about 667.40 from the open of the regular session open to about 665.90 at the closing bell today. And of course the big-picture zone is from 675 to 672. The corresponding levels of the trendline and zone aren't plotted on the board for today, but just understand that they exist and are important. If price gets up to those areas, it would typically represent resistance that the bulls would need to fight through to stay strong. 

The official levels on the board are places where the bull/bear battles would take place in a normal market. Today is unlikely to be normal, so either sit back and wait until the dust clears, or adjust position size accordingly. When there are 20+ point moves in seconds, it would not be good to be stuck in a multi-ES contract position on the wrong side of a trade. The Micro ES contracts are a good option for times when you want to minimize your risk.

The level at 648.50 is around where the SPY closed last Friday. It could mean something if price gets down that far today, but it's not a tradeable level by default, unless other confirmations are present at the same time. The bigger line in the sand that the bulls would really need to defend if the bottom falls out today is 644.80. Staying above is ok for the bulls for the time being. Getting below and closing below 644.80 - especially daily closes - isn't good for the bulls.

But at the risk of flip-flopping and talking from both ends here, we can't discount the fact that the "over-extension" of the SPY in the big picture is still a recipe for a bigger and longer reset somewhere way lower than where price is right now. We said in the recent Weekly Recap video (posted last night), that there will likely be a lot of back and forth in the meantime. And if the bulls use the weekly 50-period moving average as a place to bounce, what we've seen lately could be the extent of the reset. But price needs to get above and close daily and then weekly candles above the trendline before we can have that conversation. Either way, expect plenty of volatility until price stabilizes. Geopolitical events are a strong influencer on market prices lately. No telling what the next catalyst will be for the next big move. So be careful today if you choose to put money at risk. No data releases scheduled for today. Trade well!

Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

After all the premarket excitement, the regular session ended up being pretty typical. We got two Base Hits from our levels - more if you were willing to give the trades more wiggle room. Here's how that played out:

At the close of the first 15-minute candle, price was under the 658.53 level. When the operating level of 658.47 (with 5-cent buffer applied) was hit at 9:46 am, the resulting short trade handed over Base Hit number one.

The next level up at 660.56 was not triggered for a short trade when price hit it because of a Near Miss that happened at 10:02 am. Price came up within 10 cents of the operating level and pulled back almost enough for a Base Hit - not quite within 10 cents. But the conservative thing to do per the rules was to cancel the trade activation and not let the short trade trigger. This was one of those times where if the level was given a little more wiggle room, the trade would have worked well. For what it's worth, I did go short with a couple contracts when price hit the level at 10:03 and I pulled more than a Base Hit as price fell fast. So I know it was possible. 

Then price got above the 660.56 level and came back down into it about 11 minutes later. That's too soon to attempt a Recycle Trade. So no additional trades at that level. After price messed around with that level for a bit and then got on top again, you'd want to think twice about attempting the Recycle Trade again if they were to come back down into the level. The first hit is the best hit, and by 11:35 am, when price came back down into the level, it was off the table according to the rules.

A similar thing happened on the long side of 658.53. Price did come back down into it from the top, but we already had the too-early bounce on the long side at 10:06 am, so taking future Recycle Trade attempts were not in line with the rules. And besides, there was a bounce at 11:50 am that was not quite enough for a Base Hit. So even if you did try for the Recycle Trade at 11:47 am, you would have gotten a Near Miss of the profit objective. So, no trade in any case.

The next trade was a long against 656.50 at  11:57 am. Price bounced initially, but not enough for a Base Hit. Then it reverted back to your entry point. Per the rules, you jumped out at breakeven for a wash. So no points gained. Clearly the level did still hold as support and gave more than a Base Hit worth's of points, but we're only counting trades that fit the parameters of our rules. No trade.

The last trade of the day was a short against 565.50 for a Recycle Trade at 12:46 pm. That worked as designed as price fell away, give you your second official Base Hit for the day.

And by the way, if you're wondering about the level at 658.53 when it was hit again from the underside at 2:34 pm.. would you have taken that short trade? No, for two reasons. One, because you already shorted that same level early in the regular session, right after the 9:45 am window of opportunity opened. And second, notice the 20-20 consolidation that happened starting at 1:38 pm and continued until the level was hit at 2:34. Those tests of the level where price got to around 20 cents of the level several times (more than 20 minutes), was the market's way of telling you that if price were to get to the level, it would probably not act as resistance anymore. Or at least enough resistance. In this case, price was eventually rejected by that level and was forced lower, but we only follow the rules here. It takes the guesswork out of trading.

Per the rules, a total of 8 ES points for the day.