SPY Levels & Game Plan

Thursday, April 2, 2026


9:14 am Eastern  - After hitting the trendline yesterday and making a high at our level of 658.09, the bears have pulled price down over 140 S&P points in the overnight and premarket sessions. This is the kind of movement and pulls on the market - in both directions - that we've been talking about. Bullish in the very big picture, but not-so-bullish in the intermediate timeframes. With last night's drop, price is almost back down to the trendline that they fought to get on top of on Tuesday. Only two days, and they've bounced between the two trendlines. For today, the lower trendline runs from 641.50 at the opening bell down to 641.00 by the closing bell. Like with yesterday, they whole zone in the trendline area is a gauge. The levels of that zone might work for trades (the upper trendline/zone levels would have worked for a couple Base Hit trades yesterday), but I'd rather use it as a gauge. They're not tradeable levels by default. It is possible for the bulls to defend it and bounce price there today - if they get down there. But it's also possible that they give it up and price drips lower from there.

The level at 643.90 is a retracement level that price blasted through on their way up on Tuesday. Coming back down into it could mean something different. It could be defended by the bulls. Price is already trying to find support down there with about 20 minutes left until the opening bell. All the other levels are typical and designed for Base Hits. Be aware that we are still in the kind of environment where volatility can pick up and big swings can happen. I like to treat the levels precisely, but if you give them more wiggle room and more time for trades to develop, you can probably squeeze more points out if price reacts at the levels the right way. Yesterday, the overhead resistance at 658.09 should have been a good short trade, but per the rules, price gave a Near Miss of the Bast Hit profit objective and would have been closed out at breakeven, strictly speaking. But giving that trade more time to develop gave a lot more points, as price fell from there. The trendline up there was the big-picture resistance needed to drive price down. Perhaps today we'll get similar behavior if the trendline under current price (between 641.50 and 641.00) can provide the right kind of support to help the bulls get a lift today. Be careful today and trade well.


After the closing bell...


Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:

We gave some more points back to the market today. More abrupt swings. To get the trades exact, per the rules, limit orders on the chart or precise activation triggers would probably have been helpful. But here's how everything went down:

Trade number one was a short against 649.74. That resulted in a quick Base Hit.

Then, price started accelerating upward and 651.83 was hit That short trade hit the max loss limit, right before the next level was hit. So, right after you gave 20 points back, you gained 4 points on the short against 653.92. That worked as a quick short trade for a Base hit. Then price continued higher and hit 656.60. The short there produced the third and final Base Hit for the day. There were no Recycle Trades, per the rules. 

This means the +50% rate of return we hit last week has pulled back a little. As of today, we're at 46%. Tomorrow, the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday. We'll be back in business on Monday. Have a great weeked!

Per the rules, a total of -8 ES points for the day.


Tracking log to-date for 2026:



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