SPY Levels & Game Plan
Monday, December 22, 2025
9:14 AM Eastern - The futures were able to drive price back up and into the range that started to take shape at the beginning of December. This could be what some call a “Santa Claus Rally”. This is a holiday week – Christmas day is Thursday – the market will be closed that day – and volume is likely to be light this week. Typically that results in a slow grind higher. But crazy things have happened in light volume.
Right now, the SPY is poised to open above our bull axis for the day, which is 681.12. Staying above and closing hourly candles above is where price needs to be to continue to gain upward momentum. There is a zone between 685.20 and 685.74 where there is likely overhead resistance. In fact, there could be sufficient resistance right below that zone that price may need to fight to get up to the zone. Pay attention to what price is doing if it gets up to around 684.50 and above. It could be a good area to scale in on the short side if price gets there the right way. And 690.00 is the former all-time high in the SPY. There could be a battle up there. It may not be a tradeable level, but typically, the bears don’t just let price through the door without a fight.
The bear axis is 680.20. If price gets down there and closes candles of significance, the bears may have some more tricks left. Price would be nearing the bottom of the range if they get below the bear axis, so that could open the door to lower prices if the bulls can’t defend it. Trade well today.
After the closing bell...
Trading by the Ticks & Trades Strategy, here is where you would have landed for the day:
The bulls got price up into the zone which started at 685.20. Going short at that level, while being willing to scale in at the top of the zone if they reached it - was the plan. The reaction at the bottom of the zone handed you a Base Hit. One and done for the day. Price never got to the top of the zone during the regular session.
Per the rules, a total of 4 ES points for the day.
Tracking log to-date for 2025:
